In the new book, Climate Change Risks and Food Security in Bangladesh, Winston Yu and co-authors argue that climate change poses a serious risk to the agricultural economies of vulnerable countries. This may hinder the development opportunities for the rural poor who depend on the agriculture sector for food, income, and employment. They also demonstrate the importance of strengthening flood management and promoting innovation in the crop sector as possible adaptations to these emerging climate risks. Earthscan spoke with Winston Yu, the lead author on this book.
>> For review or inspection copies, or to contact the author, email gudrun.freese@earthscan.co.uk.
>> Visit the book's webpage: http://www.earthscan.co.uk/?tabid=102311
Q: In what ways is Bangladesh vulnerable to climate change?
A: Bangladesh is vulnerable to a wide range of climatic risks, not just future climate change. For instance, this low-lying country (mostly below 5 meters above sea level) is one of the most flood prone countries in the world. Yearly floods along the major Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers combined with cyclonic events from the Bay of Bengal are recurrent challenges today that the country has had to become resilient to over time. Climate change will add more uncertainty to a current variable hydrometeorology. Moreover, sea level rise will have consequences on coastal communities in Bangladesh. These areas are already on the margin as salinity of groundwater aquifers limits the agricultural production possible.
Q: How many people’s livelihoods and food security are at risk of flooding or climate change in Bangladesh?
A: In a normal year, about 20% of the area of the country is affected by floods. In extreme years, in 1998 for example, this can go as high as 70%. In that year, partly due to the simultaneous peaking of both the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers, some 30 million people were affected and over 1000 people died. These extreme events are predicted to increase in frequency under a climate change future. A 1-m sea level rise is estimated to impact some 13 million people in the southern most parts of the country.
Q: Given this history of floods and cyclones, has Bangladesh made progress in disaster management and how well prepared are they for climate change?
A: Absolutely. Bangladesh has invested heavily over the last several decades in protective infrastructure (such as polders, embankments) and in improving the ability to forecast floods and strengthen early warning systems to help better prepare communities and respond to disasters. This is evidenced by the fact that agriculture growth has remained positive over the last several decades despite some large floods in recent history (e.g. 1988, 1998, 2004, and 2007). Much more investment, however, is needed. Future damages, in terms of destruction of assets, economic losses and even loss of life, can be further reduced. These continued investments (both hardware and software) will better prepare the country for future climate change.
Q: What is the link between climate, water and food security in Bangladesh?
A: Food self sufficiency has always been a key development objective of the country. The agriculture sector remains important to the overall economy and employs a significant part of the population. The connection here is that these climate risks (primarily through the impacts of water) are an important determinant of how much agriculture is produced in a given year. Thus, climate, water, and food are inextricably linked.
With a rapidly changing environment, farmers have had to find ways, with the assistance of the Government and various agricultural research institutes, to adapt to this. This has resulted in new varieties of rice and different farming practices. The introduction of groundwater irrigation wells for dry season rice is one example. With changing future temperatures and precipitation patterns (including shifts in the timing and magnitude of the monsoon), further adaptation is needed to maintain the current growth in agricultural production. This is needed to meet future growing demands for food.
Q: So what does Bangladesh need to better prepare for future climate change?
A: The good news is that many of the types of investments that are required to deal with food security today are the same as those required to deal with food security in a climate change future. That is, there are lots of no regrets strategies that can be piloted today. For instance, irrespective of how flood characteristics will change in the future, by strengthening flood management today (whether through improved forecasting methods or better management of embankment infrastructure), Bangladesh is better preparing for future floods. By improving agriculture extension services and introducing new crop varieties today, farmers are building resilience and incomes to meet future climates. Sustained investment and innovation, however, is required.
Q: How is this book different than previous work on the issue?
A: Food security in Bangladesh is very much dependent on several inter-linked factors: climate, water, agriculture production, and economics. I was fortunate to be able to pull together an expert team of climate scientists, hydrologists, crop modelers, agriculturalists, and economic modelers to do an integrated impact assessment of climate risks on the agriculture sector. It is this multi-discipline framework that is unique and required to fully enumerate these complex linkages. In this book, also, we identify several promising practices (with the help of FAO) that could be used to help enhance production and incomes under a variety of current conditions.
Q: Many climate studies are criticized for imprecise data. Does your work provide clear advances in the way in which climate change and its implications can be modeled?
A: Predicting the future, glimpsing 20-50 years forward at a useful level of precision and accuracy is inherently a difficult task. We have challenges with even basic short-term weather forecasting. So you can imagine that what the climate will look like in 2050 is at best an informed guess. The most pragmatic approach is to test as wide a range of scenarios as plausible. The advance made in this book is that these various scenarios are run throughout the entire analysis, from the climate through the economy. Moreover, identifying which uncertainties matter the most can help to narrow the scenario space. For instance, as we identified, the uncertainty in future yield changes may be quite small in comparison to the gap between current and technically feasible yields. Finally, I think these large uncertainties argue more strongly for a risk-based approach to planning and management.
Q: What lessons can other countries learn from your work?
A: The framework that is developed here can certainly be applied to other countries. The primary lesson here is that to fully understand the impacts of climate change and to identify appropriate and effective adaptation options, a multi-discipline view and integrated approach are absolutely necessary. As I mentioned earlier, climate, water, and food are intrinsically linked. This is especially true for many countries in the developing world that lack the infrastructure, institutions, and information to decouple these. So to better understand these linkages can go a long way in designing programs and policies to effectively deal with climate variability and future change.
About the lead author:
Dr. Winston Yu is a Water Resources Specialist at the World Bank. He has extensive experience working on technical and institutional problems in the water sector and has carried out a number of projects, studies, and research in a variety of developing countries (e.g. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia). Prior to joining the Bank he was a researcher at the Stockholm Environment Institute and also served as a Science and Technology Officer at the US Department of State. He is currently also an Adjunct Professor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins where he teaches a course on international water in development. He received a Ph.D. and M.S. from Harvard University and B.S. and B.A.S. from the University of Pennsylvania (Wharton School and Engineering and Applied Sciences School).
